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Alvaro Ruiz-Serrano
Bernardo Monechi
Francesca Tria
Vittorio Loreto
Waves of Novelties in the Expansion into the Adjacent Possible


The emergence of novelties and their rise and fall in popularity is an ubiquitous phenomenon in human activities. The coexistence of always popular milestones with novel and sometimes ephemeral trends pervades technological, scientific and artistic production. By introducing suitable statistical measures, we demonstrate that different systems of human activities, i.e. the creation of hashtags in Twitter, the interaction with online program code repositories, the creation of texts and the listening of songs on an on-line platform, exhibit surprisingly similar properties.We then introduce a general framework to explain those regularities. We propose a simple mathematical model based on the expansion into the adjacent possible, that has been proven to be a very general and powerful mechanism able to explain many of the statistical patterns emerging in innovation dynamics, to which we add two crucial elements. On the one hand we quantify the idea that, while exploring a conceptual or physical space, inertia exists towards known already discovered elements. On the other hand, we highlight the role of the collective dynamics – where many users interact, in a direct or indirect way in the emergence and diffusion of novelties and innovations.

Journal: PloS ONE
Page: e0179303
Volume: 12